Fwurg

[Brend]

((This post is the OOC accompaniement of [ Mail ] To Senator Ardios Elderilith and Senator Jennifer Obotanga: Strong Interest in Terraformation))


Hi there Chriz and Gerben,

I am accompanying above IC inquiry by a bit of OOC inquiry, mostly to make sure I am not misinterpreting things.

Since the text medium tends to increase the friction of communications I am writing this in an "open letter" format. It is my hope that this helps make sure that if there are any unclarities in the following, any player can point them out, so I can clarify the situation in different wording. It will also help to have the communication in the open so that a neutral party can step in if this turns into a dialogue of the deaf, or if I show a complete lack of understanding (which I sometimes do due to reading things more litarlly then meant by the author).


I'd like to start off with saying that I am disappointed that no attempt was made to ICly contact the Veolians — which I thought were your allies in both the political and economical sense — to see if a deal could be struck to scale up terraformation. But more aggravating (to me at least) is the lack of OOC poke to see if an agreement would even be possible. Not even a single utterance or a simple two-sentence PM was sent about this.

Which leaves me rather in the dark as to the intentions of the Praetorian Empire and the Sundarian Federation... And I want to be realllllllly sure that I am interpreting their actions correctly before reacting to them ICly.


To clarify, the Veolians have observed the following (note, I am saying "the Veolians" which means an IC point of view, not "Brend's" point of view):

• The veolians have always worked together with the Praetorians and the Sundarians to get them terraformation, and at reduced prices when asked for explicitly.
• The Veolians were under the impressions that the relations between them and the two worlds were on a positive note, and that economic collaboration seemed to be going well. Many Veolians would even describe the relationship as being economic allies; sure there were some rought patches here and there, but overall the Praetorians and Sundarians have behaved as the best possible allies one could have in the Union.
• Now, in 284, both worlds suddenly start to mass-research terraformation technologies, which basically form one of the two pillars of the Veolian economy.
• What's more, your worlds have already licensed those technologies from the Veolian Commonwealth and needed only to ask to apply them liberally on your settlement.
• No explanation was given beforehand, nor was any contact sought to seek a mutually beneficial agreement that all parties were happy with.

Within the paranoid Veolian mindset, these observation naturally lead to the following reasoning:

• Without even a single attempt to come to some kind of deal, it seems that the Praetorian Empire and the Sundarian Federation (who were thought to be economical allies) are gearing up to compete with the Veolian Commonwealth in an industry that is seen by the Veolians as the life-blood of the Veolian economy. Which leads to the conclusion that the Praetorians and Sundarians will soon cut of other deals as a pre-emptive first blow in the trade-war that is bound to happen once they enter the Terraformation market. This pre-emptive strike will deprive the Veolian Commonwealth of much-needed + (from the Praetorians), and + (from the Sundarians). Exacerbating this view is the fact that the Praetorians have been dumping their — which in this new light is easily interpreted by the Veolians as the Praetorians ridding themselves of any economic ties to the Veolians in preparation for serious moves.

From an OOC point of view I readily admit that this is not a very likely scenario given the history between our worlds, but the Veolians are paranoid to a fault, and are in no way rational about perceived threats.


So... I am reasonably sure that starting a trade-war is not the intent of the Praetorians and the Sundarians. However, since there has been exactly zero communication about the matter, I am completely unsure of where you OOCly stand on the matter.

I would really like to know where you OOCly stand on this matter, and I would also like to understand why there has been no communication at all (IC or OOC) about this sudden development.

And most of all, I would like to understand the intent of the Praetorians and Sundarians with this unexpected action.

Can you please help me out here?

Cheers,
Brend

[Gerben]

First off, your concerns are fair and communications IC (and OOC) could have been (much) better and more proactive. I also get that these actions are difficult to match building up from the IC relationship that exists between the Sundarians and the Veolians.

I'll give you some more insight into the how and why...

((OOC: though it will be in parts because of a very busy schedule))

Secondly, It is not in the interest of the Sundarians to cancel any trade deals with the Commonwealth, though given the known paranoia your conclusion would be logical. Cancelling said agreements would wreck the economy (mine and yours) beyond repair, something I certainly do not want.

Thirdly, while it does appear to be the Sundarain Federation (and the Praetorian Empire, based upon the Turn reports) doing the research, it is important to note that in at least for the Sundarians, this is not the case. This research is privately funded by the Oronui Family, from the profits made with their settlement. The turn reports aren't meant for a registration on this level of detail.

Which partly is why Lady Daphne has been working her way into the inner circle of Dewa Lanadi, as will eventually become clear in the related dating thread. I haven't quite given this thread the much needed time, for several reasons. (Forum quantum time is a Thing, since we started well before 270 with this one)

More to follow soon tm ((OOC: must sleep now, work first thing tomorrow))

[Chriz]

I can say OOC that the communication could have been better, unfortunately OOC time was an issue. This plan was conceived before we even created our settlement. Since the Veolian Commonwealth is the only faction with terraformation technology they have a monopoly that allows them for crazy prices of 6 tax per module. Since they were keeping the prices high on purpose you probably did see this move coming for some time, however the question was who would do it.

You are kind of right about the credits dumping, this was a precaution, since the Praetorian Empire is well aware that the Veolian Commonwealth loves to strongarm factions with them. The credits served their purpose in bootstrapping the settlement.

The Noxim family has joined forces with the Oronui family and they calculated that terraforming a settlement would be worth investing in the terraformation themselves. Knowning that they could create the modules for a value of +- 3.5 / which the Veolian Commonwealth would not offer.

When it comes to the IC communication I asked Gerben to do a final offer about 20 ago. Unfortunately this offer resulted IC in a note from Lady Daphne that was basically discarded by Dewa Lanadi. The Noxim family were done with dragging this situation along and decided to finally just start with the research.

In conclusion a trade war is a bit of an overreaction as we are used to from the Veolian Commonwealth. We call this some healty competition on one product that is scarce, namely the terraformation modules. Although we are well aware that actual competition might not be the case for a while since the Praetorian Empire and Sundarian Federation will be consuming their own modules for the next 200 .

If you would have followed the example of the Astai Republic this would not have happened :P

We will respond IC later when we have some time.

[Brend]

Part the First: In which Brend replies to some things

Secondly, It is not in the interest of the Sundarians to cancel any trade deals with the Commonwealth, though given the known paranoia your conclusion would be logical. Cancelling said agreements would wreck the economy (mine and yours) beyond repair, something I certainly do not want.

I think we are in full agreement that nobody is served by an all-out trade war between three large economies.

Thirdly, while it does appear to be the Sundarain Federation (and the Praetorian Empire, based upon the Turn reports) doing the research, it is important to note that in at least for the Sundarians, this is not the case. This research is privately funded by the Oronui Family, from the profits made with their settlement. The turn reports aren't meant for a registration on this level of detail.

Unfortunately, the Oronui Family are a member of the Sundarian Federation, and as such the correct entity to address for any grievances is first the Sundarian Federation before doing anything else.

Since the Veolian Commonwealth is the only faction with terraformation technology they have a monopoly that allows them for crazy prices of 6 tax per module. Since they were keeping the prices high on purpose you probably did see this move coming for some time, however the question was who would do it.

I agree that they are keeping their prices crazy high. I also agree that they expected to have to lower their prices at some point. I can tell you that I did not see it coming that two of the best economic allies of the Veolians would simply cut them out without a single word in their direction.

Before I continue, I have to admit that I find that my feelings with regard to this topic are difficult to disentangle. Since the start of FWURG, I have always identified with the Veolians through their culture, and their one economic specialty — and that specialty is Terraformation, which they have always performed for anyone that asked, and in nearly all cases they actually lowered their price when asked to do so.

Anyway, on to my reaction and question:

You are kind of right about the credits dumping, this was a precaution, since the Praetorian Empire is well aware that the Veolian Commonwealth loves to strongarm factions with them.

As a point of order I would like to point out that I never really strong-armed any faction with them — since that would undercut trust in the currency and remove any usefulness of the credit for the Union... But this goes to show the saying "Seeming is being" holds true, seeming to be a ruthless back-stabbing policitcal actor actually makes you one in FWURG, regardless of your actual actions ^_^

Knowning that they could create the modules for a value of +- 3.5 / which the Veolian Commonwealth would not offer.

(Emphasis mine)

If you do not ask, there is no reason for the Veolians to make a much better offer out of the blue... Since no communication attempts were made (except that note, see below), there is no way for the Veolians to now that the Praetorians and Sundarians wanted to acquite terraformation modules.

More difficult for me OOCly, is that without communications there is no way for the Veolians to know that the Praetorians and Sundarians wanted to go out on their own if they could not get a significany discount. I'm not sure how the Veolians would have reacted, but they are well aware that 6.0 is very high, and that it is likely that others will ask for much lower prices. As such, they would not have had any problems to give their allies a significant price advantage over others (that's basically what allies do for each other after all!)

When it comes to the IC communication I asked Gerben to do a final offer about 20 ago. Unfortunately this offer resulted IC in a note from Lady Daphne that was basically discarded by Dewa Lanadi. The Noxim family were done with dragging this situation along and decided to finally just start with the research.

This is rather difficult for me to digest. Especially since there simply was very little activity in that thread from your side — I literally had to ask Gerben if he was still there, and the timing of the thread could have easily shown to you that it was a very, very slow thread. The posts that were there did not in any way imply that Gerben thought the note was important, or something that needed timely attention.

So from my OOC point of view this basically sound like "You decided to ignored our timely message by not replying.", while from my point of view it is "There was a hint of interest in terraformation, but no actual posting was going on..."

What I am reading here is "No, Brend, it is your fault that this happened because you decided to not talk to us.", and that is simply not how I see the situation. I have the strongest feeling that it would not have been difficult to conclude that that note was going nowhere, and to simply send a PM asking if there is an IC solution to the high prices problem.

In conclusion a trade war is a bit of an overreaction as we are used to from the Veolian Commonwealth.

Like I said, the Veolians are a bit paranoid about perceived threats. Which is exactly why I opened this OOC thread, to make sure that I understood the intentions of the factions involved. And to make sure that the IC conclusion by the Veolians is not leading in how they react to this situation.

But to be honest, even if these intentions were known to the Veolians, it still basically boils down to the economic allies of the Veolians intending to step on one of the main economic pillars of the Veolians, without even consulting them in the process.

If you would have followed the example of the Astai Republic this would not have happened :P

And what would that be? Because I see no analog to their situation in anything I have done. Also, I think this "if you would have followed an example" argument works both ways: if you followed the example of the Veolian Commonwealth, this would also not have happened, since that would mean a simple holomessage to ask for a quote before deciding to do it yourself (and burning your allies in the process).

[Brend]

Part the Second: More thinking and would-be scenario's

So, I have done some reflection. And I completely agree that some counter-reaction is to be expected from having high prices.

However, right now, I'm a bit disappointed that Chriz does see the Veolians as ruth-less back-stabbing political creatures, but also assumes that they are stupid. For reasons that are beyond me, the assumption seems to have been that the Veolians were so stupid that they were never going to back off from the price of 6.0 .


I can see several scenario's of cooperation that can/could have been arranged (I'm going to abbreviate Praetorians and Sundarians to P&S for brevity):

1. The Praetorians and Sundarians contact the Veolians and tell them how they want a big fat discount because they are allies and are going to terraform a complete system. The Veolians, knowing that 6.0 is an overestimation of the value of drop at least a -1.5 discount, and P&S have no actual technology development costs due to the Veolians already having all the tech.
2. The Praetorians and Sundarians contact the Veolians and tell them that they can make at 3.5 , and that they intend to terraform their whole system. The Veolians, not being stupid and knowing that the price of 6.0 is inflated, but also knowing the price is higher than 3.5 due to high demand that they can not satisfy, happily agree to lending their expertise to the project. P&S save on all technology development costs but get their at a price they deem reasonable.
3. The Praetorians and Sundarians contact the Veolians and tell them that they can make at 3.5 , and whether the Veolians are interested in buying their terraform at 4.5 so all allies can make a tidy profit by using Veolian expertise and P&S industrial savvy to rack up great heaps of money. This is the "kinda immoral, much money" route.
4. The Praetorians and Sundarians contact the Veolians and tell them that they can make at 3.5 , and that they want the Veolians to drop their prices so they can cooperation in a morally sound manner. The Veolians, not being stupid and not wanting to end up having to attack their allies over this matter agree and buy P&S at 3.5 to resell bundled with technological expertise at 4.5-5.0 .
5. The Praetorians and Sundarians contact the Veolians and tell them that they want in on the technological know-how of terraformation to terraform their settlement, and eventually sell . The Veolians, not being stupid and knowing that P&S have the economic prowess to make good on this, work out a deal to transfer loads of sweet terraformation technology to P&S with some time-delayed no-sell agreement such that P&S can start work on their settlement right away, but can't sell at large for another 104 — the Veolians are happy that their allies leave them a way out to save face, and the allies are happy because they can start steamrolling their settlement.
6. The Praetorians and Sundarians contact the Veolians and tell them that they are going to sell at 3.5 , and that the Veolians can suck it. The Veolians grumble a lot about it, make a some veiled threats, but ultimately do not really want to go to war with their allies — they will try to convince P&S to sell at 4.5 at least, so all involved can at least turn a good profit.

Note that in all these scenario's, there is some form of contact with the Veolians.

The only scenario without communication is this one:

1. The Praetorians and Sundarians do not contact the Veolians, and set out to research all terraformation and sell at 3.5 . They did not contact their allies, and seem to not care about the relation at all. The Veolians, not having the option of saving face or reputation, feel that they ought to teach their former allies a lesson — after all, if they do not, everyone in the Union will known that they are not the ruth-less political creatures they seem to be. And that would only invite others to also step on them.

The moral of all these scenarios:

Not communicating with your allies also communicates a message: that you do not care about your relationship with them.


Of course, if the Veolians really are the ruth-less back-stabbing political creatures they seem to be, they would know that they can't hold a price of 6.0 without someone eventually pulling them down to a reasonable level. And they'd much rather have those people be their allies (i.e., the Praetorians and Sundarians), since they have an established relation with their allies, and they can collaborate with their allies. But, this absolutely, positively, requires that communication between the allies remain intact!

This is also the reason I contact you OOCly, because I do not think it is your intention to enter Scenario A.


However, I am getting very different vibes from your OOC replies — Gerben's is a little short to judge but seems to lean towards "my character is still trying to get on the chancellor's good side", while Chriz's seems to lean towards "this was inevitable, and it the Veolians' fault for not pre-empting this themselfs".

And I must admit, if I am reading that attitude correctly (and I am not 100% convinced that I am) it seems that the Praetorians don't really value the Veolians as allies. Note that this is perfectly possible, and that there is no reason the Veolians should be right about their assessment that the Praetorians were their ally — such estimations are not always symmetric, nor are they reasonable.

And I must also admit (a little to my own surprise) that it does hurt OOCly as well that five years of roleplaying and relation-building basically boils down to "Oh yeah, those guys. Nah, we'll just ignore them."


Right. That last part was a little more fluffy and touchy-feely than my usual self. Apparently I care more deeply about the relationships I thought my characters built up over years of roleplaying than I was aware of.